When the Kansas City Chiefs lost to the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day, November 27, 2025, at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, fans held their breath. At 6-6, they were clinging to playoff hopes — but the real story wasn’t the loss. It was what happened to the team that once stood between them and the postseason: the Jacksonville Jaguars.
How the Jaguars Blew Their Playoff Edge
Back in Week 5, on October 6, 2025, the Jaguars stunned the Chiefs 31-28 in a game that felt like a turning point. That win gave Jacksonville the tiebreaker advantage over Kansas City — a crucial edge in the AFC’s wild-card race. But since then? Total implosion.The Jaguars lost three of their last four games, including a historic collapse in Week 12. Leading the Houston Texans 29-10 with under 10 minutes left on November 24, 2025, they surrendered 26 unanswered points. The final score? 36-29. The offense vanished. The defense cracked. The crowd booed. And suddenly, the team that looked like a dark-horse contender looked like a mess.
Adding insult to injury, rookie phenom Travis Hunter, selected second overall in the 2025 NFL Draft, suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 11. His absence isn’t just about stats — it’s about identity. Hunter was Jacksonville’s most dynamic playmaker on both sides of the ball. Without him, their ceiling dropped faster than their record.
Chiefs’ Path: Hard, But Still Open
The Chiefs still have five games left — all against teams with winning records. But here’s the twist: four of them are at home. That’s not just convenient — it’s a lifeline.According to Jackson, host of the Chiefs Report by Chat Sports YouTube program, the math is startlingly clear: win Week 14 against the Houston Texans, and the Chiefs’ playoff probability jumps to 85%. Win Week 15 against the Los Angeles Chargers — a divisional rivalry game — and it hits 94%. Beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 16, and you’re at 96%, regardless of what other teams do.
That’s not speculation. That’s data. ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) gave the Chiefs a 55.4% chance of making the playoffs at 5-5 after Week 11. Now, at 6-6, with the Jaguars crumbling and their schedule softening relative to others, that number is climbing — fast.
The AFC Standings: Who’s Ahead, Who’s Falling
After Week 13, the AFC playoff picture looks like this:- New England Patriots: 10-2 (No. 1 seed)
- Denver Broncos: 9-2 (No. 2 seed)
- Indianapolis Colts: 8-3
- Los Angeles Chargers: 7-4
- Baltimore Ravens: 6-5
- Kansas City Chiefs: 6-6
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-6 (but hold the tiebreaker over KC)
Here’s the catch: the Chiefs are tied with the Jaguars and Ravens at 6-6, but they’re behind in the tiebreaker hierarchy. That’s why beating Jacksonville in Week 17 — if they both make it — isn’t just important. It’s mandatory.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars still have to face the Broncos, Chargers, and Colts twice. All four of those games are against teams currently in or fighting for playoff spots. The Chiefs, meanwhile, face the same teams — but with home-field advantage in three of their final five.
Why Home Field Matters More Than You Think
Winning on the road in December? Brutal. Cold weather. Travel fatigue. Crowd noise that drowns out play calls. The Chiefs know this better than most — they’ve won 12 of their last 14 home games in December.
“It’s not time to give up,” Jackson said in his November 19 episode. “Home-field advantage for four of the final six games? That’s enormous.”
What’s more, the Chiefs’ schedule ends with a home game against the Broncos on December 22 — a game that could decide the AFC West. If Kansas City wins that one, and the Broncos lose to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 17, the Chiefs could sneak into the No. 2 seed. A 12-5 record with a win over Denver? That’s not just a playoff berth — that’s a first-round bye.
What’s Next? The Final Five
The Chiefs’ remaining schedule:- Week 14: vs. Houston Texans (Dec. 1)
- Week 15: vs. Los Angeles Chargers (Dec. 8)
- Week 16: at Tennessee Titans (Dec. 15)
- Week 17: vs. Las Vegas Raiders (Dec. 21)
- Week 18: at Denver Broncos (Dec. 29)
Win four of these? That’s 10-6. Playoffs. Win five? 11-6. Almost guaranteed. Win all five? 12-5 — and suddenly, they’re not just in the conversation. They’re a threat to reach the Super Bowl.
The Jaguars? They’re out of the driver’s seat. And for the Chiefs, that’s all they needed.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the tiebreaker work between the Chiefs and Jaguars?
The Jaguars hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs after winning 31-28 in Week 5. If both finish with identical records, Jacksonville gets the higher seed. That means the Chiefs must either win their Week 18 rematch or rely on other teams’ results to leapfrog them — making the final game against Denver even more critical.
What’s the minimum record needed to make the playoffs?
Historically, 10 wins is the floor for a wild-card spot in the AFC. But in 2025, with the division races tight and the Jaguars collapsing, 11 wins (11-6) is the realistic minimum. Analysts believe an 11-6 record would almost certainly secure a berth, especially if other contenders like the Chargers or Ravens falter down the stretch.
Why is the Chiefs’ home schedule so important?
The Chiefs are 7-1 at home in 2025, and their offense thrives in Arrowhead’s noise. Home teams in December win 63% of games in the AFC, and Kansas City’s offensive line has been more consistent indoors. Four of their final five games are at home — a massive advantage in a season where every win counts.
Could the Chiefs still miss the playoffs even if they go 5-0?
Unlikely. Even with a perfect 5-0 finish, they’d be 11-6 — the same record as the Jaguars and Ravens. But with Jacksonville’s recent collapse and injuries, their strength of schedule and tiebreakers would favor Kansas City. Only if the Chargers, Colts, and Ravens all finish 11-6 or better — and the Chiefs lose the tiebreaker — would they be left out. That scenario is statistically improbable.
What role does the Denver Broncos’ schedule play?
The Broncos face the Raiders, Chargers, and Titans in their final three games — all tough matchups. If Denver loses even two of those, they could drop to 9-8, opening the door for the Chiefs to overtake them in the AFC West. A Chiefs win in Week 18 combined with a Broncos loss would give Kansas City the division title — and a first-round bye.
Is Patrick Mahomes still the key to this playoff push?
Absolutely. Mahomes has thrown 28 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions since Week 8, and his mobility has improved as his ankle heals. In close games, he’s 7-1 this season when the score is within 7 points in the final 5 minutes. If he stays healthy — and the offensive line protects him — the Chiefs have one of the best finishers in NFL history leading them.
